Newsletter Issue 62 (December 2025)

Visit to Direcção dos Serviços Meteorológicos e Geofísicos Macao

On 13 December 2025, 25 members of the Hong Kong Meteorological Society and their family members visited the Direcção dos Serviços Meteorológicos e Geofísicos (DSMG; Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau) in Macao. In the morning, they toured the Centennial Weather Station, the Warning and Forecasting Division, and the TV Studio at the Bureau. This was followed by interactive exchanges and experience sharing with colleagues from DSMG.

The weather of November 2025 – A dry November

With the dominance of dry northeast monsoon over southern China for most of the time in the month, the weather of November 2025 was much drier than usual in Hong Kong. The monthly mean relative humidity of 60 percent was 12 percent below the normal of 72 percent and one of the fourth lowest on record for November. The total rainfall in the month was 7.0 millimetres, only about 18 percent of the normal of 39.3 millimetres.

Smallest and shortest-lived ozone hole in 5 years closes

The 2025 Antarctic ozone hole has come to an end on 1 December, marking the earliest closure since 2019. The 2025 ozone hole was also relatively small for the second consecutive year compared to the large and long-lasting ozone holes from 2020-2023, and had higher ozone concentrations, fueling hopes for recovery. A UN-backed report stated in 2023 that the ban of ozone depleting substances has put the ozone layer on the path to recovery and limited global warming.

NSF NCAR technologies keep travelers on the move

Both the aviation and highway forecasts use an NSF NCAR-based technology known as the Maintenance Decision Support System (MDSS®). Building on MDSS, NSF NCAR subsequently developed a tactical system to make specific recommendations for treating winter roads. This system, named Pikalert®, combines observations and models in similar ways to MDSS, while issuing detailed alerts to state transportation departments every five minutes based on conditions.

Arctic Report Card Marks 20 Years Amid Record Warming in 2025

Record heat, record low sea ice, shrinking glaciers, continued warming of the ocean and unprecedented extreme weather events are just some of the disruptive changes reported that are transforming this once reliably frozen region into a warmer, wetter, and unpredictable world. These are the key findings of the Arctic Report Card 2025. Now in its 20th year, the report documents ongoing trends, record-setting events, and emerging challenges in a region warming far faster than the rest of the planet.

NOAA deploys new generation of AI-driven global weather models

“NOAA’s strategic application of AI is a significant leap forward in American weather model innovation,” said Neil Jacobs, Ph.D., NOAA administrator. “These AI models reflect a new paradigm for NOAA in providing improved accuracy for large-scale weather and tropical tracks, and faster delivery of forecast products to meteorologists and the public at a lower cost through drastically reduced computational expenses.” (AIGFS, AIGEFS and HGEFS data for download)

A regional high resolution AI weather model for the prediction of atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation

Leveraging recent advancements in AI, the authors present a stretched-grid AI-driven weather model with 6-km horizontal grid increments over the Western United States and ~31 km in other regions globally. The model employs an autoregressive framework to generate forecasts in minutes and is evaluated against global and regional NWP systems, as well as a lower-resolution AI model.

中國氣象局發布氣象人工智能科學模型“風源”

12月19日，中國氣象局在河北雄安新區發佈氣象人工智慧科學模型“風源”。該模型將通過提供開源開放科創平台底座，助力人工智慧氣象預報模型能力提升與氣象人工智慧科學研究。中國氣象局副局長曹曉鐘表示，中國氣象局把氣象人工智慧放在國家戰略全域中謀劃，推進人工智慧賦能氣象高品質發展。“風源”標誌著氣象部門擁有了自主智慧財產權的端到端科學模型底座，在關鍵環節實現了技術自主可控，具備了持續反覆運算、滾動演進的工程基礎。

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