Newsletter Issue 65 (March 2026)

「2021-2025 十大矚目天氣及氣候事件選舉」投票結果

天文台聯同香港氣象學會於 2026 年初舉辦的《 2021-2025 十大矚目天氣及氣候事件選舉》已圓滿結束，活動共吸引近二千人次投票。參加者需要從「香港」及「全球」組別中選取 5 個心目中認為最重要、影響最深遠，或氣候危機中最具代表性的天氣和氣候事件，當中更有 5 名參加者成功選中兩個組別合共10 個得票最高的事件。

The Weather of February 2026 – An exceptionally warm February

With the northeast monsoon over southern China generally weaker than normal for most of the time in the month, Feb 2026 was unseasonably warm in Hong Kong. The monthly mean temperature of 20.1 degrees was 3.0 degrees above the normal and one of the second highest on record for Feb. Together with the well above normal temperatures in Dec 2025 and warmer than usual weather in Jan 2026, Hong Kong experienced the warmest winter on record from Dec 2025 to Feb 2026.

State of the Global Climate 2025

WMO’s State of the Global Climate report 2025 confirms that 2015-2025 are the hottest 11-years on record, and that 2025 was the second or third hottest year on record, at about 1.43 °C above the 1850-1900 average. The ocean continues to warm and absorb carbon dioxide. It has been absorbing the equivalent of about eighteen times the annual human energy use each year for the past two decades. Annual sea ice extent in the Arctic was at or near a record low.

World Meteorological Day – HKO’s annual weather outlook

Looking ahead to 2026, the tropical cyclone (TC) season in HK is expected to start in June or later and cease in October or before. There will likely be about 4 to 7 TCs coming within 500 km of HK, which is near normal. With the possibility of El Niño development and the continued warming of the climate, the annual mean temperature is expected to be above normal with a high chance of reaching the warmest top 10 on record. The annual rainfall is expected to be near normal (2100 – 2700 mm).

Global Seasonal Climate Update for April-May-June 2026

For the forecast period beyond April, the Niño 3.4 plume shows an exceptionally tight consensus for a rapid transition into El Niño territory by May, with several models suggesting the development of a strong El Niño as early as June/July. For AMJ, ensemble forecasts indicate a widespread global signal for above-normal land surface temperatures and the global precipitation forecast is dominated by a strong tropical Pacific signal, characteristic of a rapidly evolving warm ENSO state.

World’s First AI-driven Global Aerosol-Meteorology Forecasting System launched

On March 5, a research team led by experts from the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences of the China Meteorological Administration, in collaboration with multiple domestic and international research institutions, published the results of the world’s first Artificial intelligence-driven Global Aerosol-Meteorology Forecasting System (AI-GAMFS) in the international academic journal Nature.

2025年國內十大氣象科技進展

氣象科技進展︰建成無縫隙端到端的“伏羲”氣象預測模型體系、“風宇”開創全球空間天氣全鏈式智慧預報新體系、揭示極端野火煙霧長距離傳輸導致重大健康風險、揭示冬季北極變暖導致歐亞變冷新機制、首次解析衛星大氣三維風場並顯著提升颱風數值預報效能、新一代高效高解析度幹空氣品質守恆全球譜模式實現業務化應用、青藏高原位渦動力學基礎研究取得新突破、中國氣象局陸面資料同化系統實現陸氣多來源資料高效融合與多領域應用、全譜段非規則冰晶散射模型建成並實現國產氣象衛星遙感與同化業務應用、利用古氣候暖期解碼未來季風變化。

風雲四號C星發布首套觀測圖像

3月21日，在2026年世界氣象日紀念活動開放日啟動儀式上，中國氣象局發佈了風雲四號C星首套觀測圖像。C星搭載的6台載荷性能均到國際先進水準：靜止軌道輻射成像儀；干涉式大氣垂直探測儀；閃電成像儀；多波段電離層紫外光譜成像儀；太陽極紫外成像儀；及太陽X-EUV流量計。C星投入業務運行後，將大幅提升對中小尺度天氣監測預警、空間天氣源頭監測能力，更好發揮氣象防災減災第一道防線作用。

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